US Clears Nvidia H200 Sales to Roughly 10 Chinese Firms
What Happened
The US Commerce Department greenlit a list of Chinese AI buyers for Nvidia's H200, marking a softening of the chip-export posture under negotiation pressure. No physical deliveries have occurred. The approvals carry compliance conditions and are framed by the administration as managed engagement rather than a reversal of controls.
My Take
This is the first crack in the chip-control regime, and it happened because Nvidia's lobbying finally landed. Don't read it as a thaw — read it as evidence that export controls are a negotiating chip, not a strategy. If you're building a China-exposed AI business, you're now operating in a regime where the rules can flip in either direction within a quarter. The smart play is dual-track infrastructure, with the Chinese stack assumed to be partially decoupled regardless of which way next month's announcement goes.
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